MARKET OUTLOOK: SE Asian airline sector demands 4,500 new planes in next 20 years

Published: 18 February 2020 - 4:56 a.m.

The Southeast Asia airline market will require 4,500 new aircraft, comprised mostly of single-aisles, over the next 20 years, valued at $710 billion at list prices.

That is the forecast given by Boeing, which estimates the projected growth will stimulate the demand for commercial aviation services, forecast to be worth $785 billion between 2019 and 2038.

Boeing made its prediction in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, which has impacted heavily on airlines in the SE Asian market.

The forecast was issued at the recent Singapore Airshow, which saw tens of exhibitors pull out due to concerns over the coronavirus outbreak, which began in China.

“Three countries from Southeast Asia – Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia – made the top 10 list of countries that added the most airline seat capacity since 2010,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing.

“Vietnam has experienced the strongest growth out of the three at nearly 15% per year, followed by Thailand and Indonesia at approximately 10% respectively.

“With an expanding middle-class, in market that continues to liberalize, coupled with a strong domestic, regional and international tourism sector, Southeast Asia has become one of the world’s largest aviation markets.”

While single-aisle aeroplanes dominate Boeing’s forecast, the SE Asia region will also require a significant amount of wide-body planes, in terms of value and the number of units.

The demand is driven by airlines adapting to the evolving business environment and new long-haul expansion opportunities, the US manufacturer said.

Wide-body airplanes will make up 19% of new airplane deliveries, enabling carriers in the region to serve new international long-range city pairs.

Aviation growth in the region is expected to drive the need for 182,000 commercial pilots, cabin crew, and aviation technicians to fly and to maintain the airplane fleet across Southeast Asia.

In the air cargo sector, after declines in 2019, global freight volumes are projected to recover in 2020 due in large part to solid industrial production and world trade.

Over the long-term, air cargo is projected to grow 4.2% through the forecast period. Freighters will remain the backbone of the cargo industry with the need for 1040 new and 1780 converted freighters over the next 20 years.

Worldwide, Boeing projects the need for 44,040 new commercial planes, valued at $6.8 trillion, and the demand for aftermarket services totalled at $9.1 trillion over the next 20 years.

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